American capital bet on AI becoming the next great monopoly. That assumption is now under pressure from open-source models, commoditizing inference costs, and a competitive landscape where no single player has locked in durable advantage.
The piece does not just state the obvious. It maps the structural tension between proprietary moat-building strategies and the commons-based alternatives gaining ground, and it asks which model actually produces lasting returns for investors, developers, and users.
The answer is not settled. That is exactly why this is worth reading in full.
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